Prepare for War

Looking at the worst case scenario - a common Jewish trait
By: Yosef Tastassa
Published: February 12th, 2011 in News » Israel
IAF F15 Fighter JetsPic: NULL

Iran – Turkey - Egypt

Up until 1979, Israel and Iran had a strong bi-lateral relationship and a strategical cooperation. Then came the Islamic Revolution, a movement which surprised both America and Israel and led to the ousting of pro-Israel Shah and replaced him with the anti-Israel Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini. The outcome of the revolution abruptly wiped out years of positive friendship and strong relations between Israel and Iran and has led to the scenario we face today, an arch-foe with nuclear ambitions and a goal of extermination.

Turkey, a once secular state and long considered one of Israel’s best friend in the Middle East, has fallen under similar circumstances. The now dominantly Islamic Muslim government has also changed its attitude towards Israel. It has recently declared that Israel is a threat to the Turkish national security and has started to tighten its relationship with Iran, with whom historically they have had strained relations.

The Egyptian-Israeli border has been quiet since 1974. In 1979 Israel and Egypt signed a peace treaty to further government and economic cooperation between the two countries. The Mubarak regime was considered a moderate one in terms of its attitude to the west and Israel, where peace terms were kept and respected. Yesterday, Mubarak finally conceded his presidency, after 30 years in power and 18 days of violent protests, leaving the country under the authority of the Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, its military.

Despite the recent declaration of the Egyptian military that it will respect all the international agreements that Egypt has signed, it is still unknown whether the future regime will stand behind these agreements, or it will turn hostile towards Israel, as many of its partners have in the past.

General Gabi Ashkenazi: "Prepare for war"

IDF General Gabi Ashkenazi, who is probably more knowledgable than any of us when it comes to the new geopolitical situation in the Middle-East, recently said in one of his farewell speeches that Israel must prepare itself for a large scale military confrontation that could occur from more than one front.

Ashkenazi understands that the Islamic extremist ideology is taking power in many Muslim countries. It is mostly lead by Iran which encourages the Muslim world to unite for "Freedom, Justice and Muslim rights". If those forces ever do unite ideologically and militarily then Israel, for the first time in a long time, will face a critical situation in which its existence will be challenged. Such a situation, if it occurs, could cause the death of hundreds of thousands and destroy a critical part of the Israeli infrastructure.

The worst scenario

As any good General would do, we must always examine the worst case scenario.

Iran - Iran possesses one of the largest missile inventories in the Middle East and has acquired complete missile systems and developed an infrastructure to build missiles indigenously. It has the capabilities to not only launch long range missiles against civilian and military targets in Israel but also arm Hezbollah and Hamas, much as it’s been doing over the last few years. The Iranian Navy, which has been greatly upgraded recently, could block the Red Sea and even send ships to the Mediterranean Sea.

Egypt – With one of the largest and best equipped air forces in the Middle East, Egypt posses a very real threat if it’s ideology towards Israel was to radically change. A cancelation of the peace process could be followed by entering military forces into the Sinai Peninsula and moving towards the Israeli-Egyptian border in the western Negev. Egypt would likely block Israel’s access to the Red Sea, same as it did before the 1967 war.

Hamas – Being supported by Egypt and Iran, Hamas would likely get free access to military equipment and could begin launching long range missiles towards Israel’s biggest cities, including Tel-Aviv. Hamas would likely also launch a massive suicide bombing campaign against Israeli civilians in public places to maximize casualties and instill further fear.

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